Chances fading by the minute

Men's basketball
Eli Rosenswaike

Just thinking about UMass's postseason chances over the past few days is enough to make anyone's head spin.

Before the Atlantic 10 Tournament began, UMass seemed like virtual locks to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998.

Just days later, the Minutemen appear to be virtual locks for a home game in the NIT, instead.

For the second straight season, UMass entered the conference tournament on a six-game winning streak and a first-round bye. And for the second straight year, they exited after just one game. It cost them a spot in the NCAAs last year, and it appears that it will once again this year.

A win over Charlotte in the A-10 tournament would have been enough and all they needed. But they couldn't get it.

However, with bubble teams losing all over the place in the past few days, UMass snuck back into the picture for an at-large bid. In fact, ESPN's Joe Lunardi had them as the last team in the field last night at around 5 p.m.

No more.

With Temple just defeating Saint Joseph's for the A-10 title, UMass is in serious trouble.

This is what we know:

• Xavier is a lock for the tournament (likely a 3 or 4-seed)
• Temple is in with the automatic bid

This is what we think:

• Saint Joseph's will sneak in, even with the loss in the finals. The Hawks beat Xavier twice in the last two weeks (once yesterday in the A-10 semi's) and made a strong run in the conference tournament. That should be enough.

For UMass:

• With most assuming Xavier would win the A-10 tourney, it seemed highly likely that only one team (maybe two...UMass) would make it into the NCAA Tournament.
• With the way things played out, two are locks and a third (St Joe's) will likely get in.
• The unthinkable a week ago (four A-10 teams getting in) is a real long shot at this point. UMass needs that long shot to come through.

Chances of that long shot?

• My guess: 2 percent

The Mullins Center is going to host an NIT game for the second consecutive year...