NCAA Hockey Tournament Bracketology

Hockey
Joe Meloni

Massachusetts’s loss to New Hampshire in the first round of the Hockey East Tournament will most likely end its season. Its second-half record, 5-13-1, made it nearly impossible for the Minutemen to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament unless there is some serious drama in the final weekend of conference tournaments.

The 2008 NCAA Tournament should signal a letdown for Hockey East in general. In 2007, five teams from the conference earned bids to the tournament. But this season, no more than two are locks for the tournament, and the chances of a third are not at all high. Three All-American goaltenders left – UMass’s Jon Quick and Boston College’s Cory Schneider to the professional ranks and Boston University’s Jon Curry to graduation – and the overall level of play in the conference suffered. Not much has gone right for Hockey East in this decade. Teams from the WCHA and CCHA have won seven of the last eight national championships and six in a row. Of those seven championships, Hockey East teams have lost six of them.

The NCAA Hockey Tournament works just like its cousin on the hardwood – just on a smaller scale. Instead of 65 teams, there are 16; instead of 31 automatic bids, there are six; instead of 34 at-large bids, there 10. But, the drama and intensity are still the same. When Holy Cross upset top-ranked Minnesota in 2006, the shockwaves resembled those of George Mason’s win over Connecticut in 2006.

Only Niagara and Air Force have clinched automatic bids thus far. Princeton, Michigan, Colorado College and New Hampshire are the highest-remaining seeds in their conference tournaments, so let’s assume they go on to earn the bids with victories. If all that happens, here’s a look at what the field-of-16 would look like based on those automatic bids and the 10 at-large bids.

Automatic bids
WCHA: Colorado College*
CCHA: Michigan*
Hockey East: New Hampshire*
ECACHL: Princeton*
Atlantic Hockey: Air Force
College Hockey America: Niagara
* - Highest remaining seed in conference tournament

The 16 teams must be ranked in order to determine seeding and bracket placement. Michigan has been No. 1 or 2 all season and will be the top seed if it goes on to win the CCHA Tournament. Colorado College and New Hampshire, as champions of the other two power conferences, will follow as the second and third seeds in all likelihood.

The remaining 10 spots are awarded to the teams with the best PairWise Ranking. The PairWise Rankings aren’t perfect, but they are the best we have to mimic the process used by the selection committee.

Again, it is completely possible that teams like Miami, North Dakota and Boston College could go on to win their conference tournaments, but predicting all of this is hard enough without going through the conference tournaments game-by-game. The 10 teams below are the 10 non-conference champions with the best PairWise Ranking. Of the 10, Minnesota State, Clarkson and Michigan State were eliminated this weekend and are likely to fall in the rankings by the time the committee locks itself in. Michigan State has the most realistic chance of the three to advance to the national tournament since Harvard, Vermont and Boston University are three of the last four teams out of the field and are still playing. Wisconsin is the fourth, and just doesn’t deserve a bid considering its sub-.500 record and loss in the first round of the WCHA Tournament to St. Cloud State.

At-large bids
Boston College (Hockey East)
Clarkson (ECACHL)
Denver (WCHA)
Miami (CCHA)
Michigan State (CCHA)
Minnesota (WCHA)
Minnesota State (WCHA)
North Dakota (WCHA)
Notre Dame (CCHA)
St. Cloud State (WCHA)

The automatic and at-large bids are then seeded 1-16 based on their PairWise Ranking. A team’s PWR is not at all affected by winning a conference tournament outside of what they gain from the head-to-head victory.

Final seeding
1. Michigan
2. Colorado College
3. New Hampshire
4. Miami
5. North Dakota
6. Boston College
7. Denver
8. St. Cloud State
9. Michigan State
10. Clarkson
11. Minnesota
12. Notre Dame
13. Minnesota State
14. Princeton
15. Niagara
16. Air Force


Placing the field

Niagara, Air Force and Princeton will be the lowest seeds in the tournament despite their status as conference champions. Seeding the teams is essentially done at this point. But for clarity here are the 1s, 2s, 3s and 4s:

No. 1s: Michigan, Colorado College, New Hampshire and Miami
No. 2s: North Dakota, Boston College, Denver and St. Cloud State
No. 3s: Michigan State, Clarkson, Minnesota and Notre Dame
No. 4s: Minnesota State, Princeton, Niagara and Air Force

The main goals are to keep No. 1s close to home and avoid opening-round matchups between teams in the same conference.

Northeast Region (Worcester, Mass.)
1. New Hampshire
2. Boston College
3. Minnesota
4. Princeton

Princeton vs. New Hampshire
Minnesota vs. Boston College

East Region (Albany, N.Y.)
1. Miami
2. North Dakota
3. Notre Dame
4. Minnesota State

Minnesota State vs. Miami
Notre Dame vs. North Dakota

Midwest Region (Madison, Wis.)
1. Michigan
2. St. Cloud State
3. Michigan State
4. Air Force

Air Force vs. Michigan
Michigan State vs. St. Cloud State

West Region (Colorado Springs, Colo.)
1. Colorado College
2. Denver
3. Clarkson
4. Niagara

Niagara vs. Colorado College
Clarkson vs. Denver

There are no intra-conference matchups in the first round so the brackets don’t need to be adjusted at all.

Examining the at-large bids

Whether or not they earn automatic bids, Michigan, Colorado College and New Hampshire are locks for the tournament. Miami, North Dakota, Boston College, Denver, Notre Dame and Minnesota are also guaranteed a spot whether or not they manage to win their conference tournaments. All five could easily win the tournaments they’ll play in this weekend, but let’s examine their at-large resumes should they lose. Like I said, these teams are in regardless, but their play this weekend could seriously affect the tournament’s final seeding.

Miami

Whenever Michigan hasn’t been in the top spot of the USCHO/CSTV Division I Men’s Poll this season, the spot belonged to Miami. It has the most wins in the nation (31) and is second to Michigan in the PairWise Rankings. In two games against Michigan, Miami lost, 4-2, and played to a 5-5 tie – both games were at home. Only seven of its games came against any of the teams in the 16-team field; Miami went 4-2-1 in those games.

Although Miami is a lock for the tournament, its place as a No. 1 seed is by no means solidified. It must advance to the conference championship game and get a little help from North Dakota. If the Sioux win the WCHA, they’ll get one of the top spots. And if they go through Colorado College to do it, Miami will be a No. 2 unless they win the CCHA. The Red Hawks cannot look ahead to Michigan, however, with a talented Notre Dame team awaiting them on Friday.

North Dakota

It’s quite simple for the Sioux. Win the CCHA and they’ll earn a No. 1 seed. A loss will make it difficult if New Hampshire, Colorado College and Michigan go on to win their conferences. North Dakota is third in the PairWise behind Michigan and Miami, so a Miami win in the CCHA Tournament would almost assure the Sioux of a two seed.

All of the teams remaining in the WCHA Tournament are in the current 16-team field, so any and every win for the Sioux will bolster their resume. Their semifinal matchup with St. Cloud Friday afternoon will be interesting as the teams split the season series as 1-1-2.

Boston College

BC overcame its characteristically slow start with another strong second half. Although the Eagles did lose five of seven games at the end of February and beginning of March, they swept Providence in the Hockey East Quarterfinals. BC did blow a chance to improve its resume by losing both ends of a home-and-home with New Hampshire on Feb. 22 and 23. On Oct. 19, BC and North Dakota played in possibly the least likely scoreless tie in college hockey history. Aside from that, BC is 3-2 against teams under consideration or already in the NCAA Tournament.

Hobey Baker candidate Nathan Gerbe is playing his best hockey of the season – three goals and an assist in the sweep of Providence – entering Friday’s semifinal matchup with New Hampshire. It’s possible that the Eagles can earn a No. 1 if they win Hockey East and get some help out West.

Check out this goal Gerbe scored against Providence Saturday night.

Denver

The Pioneers are tied with the Eagles for sixth in the PairWise Rankings with the Eagles holding the edge due to their superior record against common opponents. A win over North Dakota Friday and a victory in the conference championship game is Denver’s only chance to earn a No. 1, but the Pioneers are in whether or not they advance past Friday.

Head-to-head, Denver dropped three of its four games to both North Dakota and Colorado College. So if it plans to win the WCHA, and beat the best in doing so, the Pioneers must play better than they did in the regular season.

St. Cloud State

I don’t consider the Huskies a particularly great hockey team given their general lack of consistency throughout the season. In fact, they have the lowest winning percentage of any team under consideration for a two seed. But their membership in the WCHA appears to offset that to those at the NCAA. This is the main problem with the PairWise system; teams like St. Cloud can earn a two seed in the NCAA Tournament because they lose to better teams than someone like Notre Dame defeats.

It just seems so contradictory to reward someone for losing. Anyway, Clarkson and Michigan State are the two teams directly behind the Huskies in the PairWise, so if the Huskies beat Minnesota in the Sudden-Death Semifinal of the WCHA Tournament, they are essentially guaranteed a two seed.

Minnesota

Like St. Cloud, Minnesota is greatly helped by Michigan State’s and Clarkson’s elimination in the early stages of their tournaments. The Gophers played their way into a spot by beating Minnesota State this weekend. To move up at all, they’ll need to do some work in the WCHA Tournament. While no team has ever won the WCHA Championship from the four or five seed, the Gophers proved they belonged in the mix with their back-to-back overtime wins over Minnesota State.

The Gophers were only average in WCHA play this season at 9-12-3 including an 0-1-1 record against Friday’s obstacle, St. Cloud. A No. 2 seed is unlikely for the Gophers. But if they defeat St. Cloud and Colorado College, and Princeton and Northern Michigan – the teams that eliminated Clarkson and Michigan State – both go down on Friday, the Gophers could be a No. 2. Did you get all that?

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish have a great chance to solidify their spot with a win over Miami on Friday. The Irish won at Miami on Nov. 9, but that was a very long time ago. Despite winning seven more games than Minnesota thus far, the Gophers are far better against common opponents and teams under consideration for the tournament.

Notre Dame is going to make the tournament. But I really don’t think it can expect much higher than No. 3 seed if it doesn’t defeat Miami. Although, like Minnesota, the absence of Clarkson and Michigan State could help the Irish if Princeton and Northern Michigan go down this weekend.

Michigan State

Since the defending-national-champion Spartans hold the tiebreaker over Clarkson, they are most likely in even with their loss to lowly Northern Michigan. Their 5-1-1 record over common opponents with the Golden Knights gives them the advantage. With teams like Boston University and Vermont on the bubble and still alive in their conference tournaments, the Spartans could have some problems if the Terriers or Catamounts earn the automatic bid from Hockey East with BC and UNH already locks.

It does seem as though, the Spartans will get the call, however. Minnesota State, the 13th seed and final at-large bid was eliminated by Minnesota this weekend, making way for another team in the tournament.

Minnesota State

I really don’t see how Minnesota State can earn a bid now even though they would most likely be in if the tournament’s ended today. Dependent upon everything that happens this weekend, I see Boston University earning the final at-large bid with a win over Vermont and a loss to New Hampshire in the Hockey East Championship.

It’s confusing, I know. But it really isn’t that difficult. The system is more controversial than confusing since losing is rewarding so heavily. For example, teams like Wisconsin and even UMass really have no business in the tournament, but there is a scenario that would force both teams into the discussion. The committee would never allow UMass into the tournament, realistically. But if BU were to advance to the Hockey East Championship Game and defeat New Hampshire, UMass would rise in the PWR possibly to the 15 or 16 spot since UMass won the season series with BU, 2-1. But the committee, thankfully, isn’t likely to extend a bid to a team with a sub-.500 record like UMass or even Wisconsin.

Naturally, all of this will change Saturday night when the conference title games are played. But for now, this is what things should look like.

Joe Meloni is a UMass hockey beat writer for the Daily Collegian. He can be reached at joe.meloni@gmail.com